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Business & Finance · October 15, 2026

Will the Fed raise interest rates this month? A Kevin Warsh speech could offer clues

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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, marking his final public appearance before the Fed's pre-meeting blackout period starts on October 16, 2026. While Warsh expressed long-term optimism regarding the economic impact of artificial intelligence, he declined to signal whether the central bank will raise interest rates at its October 27-28 meeting. Recent economic reports show inflation rising, driven by factors including energy supply shocks from the Iran war and high demand for AI-related infrastructure. Investors are currently split on the Fed's next move, though market data suggests a majority expect rates to remain steady in October followed by a potential hike in December.

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Reported by multiple outlets

  • Kevin Warsh spoke at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok in a fireside chat with Kristalina Georgieva.
  • The Federal Reserve's next interest rate meeting is scheduled for October 27 and 28, 2026.
  • A communication 'blackout' period for Fed officials begins late Friday, October 16, 2026.
  • Warsh declined to state whether he would vote for a rate hike at the upcoming meeting.
  • The Fed raised interest rates in September 2026 to a range of 3.75% to 4%.

Reported by only some outlets

  • Bank of America analysts suggest that broad-based inflation strengthens the case for an October rate hike.
  • Traders see a 72.3% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October.
  • Inflation reached 4.1% in May 2026 following the start of the war against Iran.
  • Diesel prices remain above $6 per gallon as of October 2026.
  • Data center and tech firms are expected to raise between $300 billion and $570 billion from debt markets this year.

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