Skip to main content
CadNews - Comparative News Analysis
Topics
Sign in
Back to brief

Politics · October 20, 2026

Sabato’s Crystal Ball changes 28 House race ratings, pushing Democrats past 218 seats

3 sources →

Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan election forecaster at the University of Virginia, shifted its ratings for 28 U.S. House races toward Democrats. The updated forecast now projects Democrats are favored in more than 220 seats, surpassing the 218-seat threshold required for a House majority. The changes involve shifts from various categories, including nine races moving from "toss-up" to "leans Democratic," as the forecaster observes a trend toward a potentially substantial Democratic majority similar to the 2018 midterms.

Read the original coverage

Reported across the spectrum

  • Sabato's Crystal Ball changed ratings for 28 House races on a Tuesday.
  • The changes push the projected number of Democratic-leaning seats past the 218 required for a majority.
  • Democrats are now favored in more than 220 seats according to the forecast.
  • The ratings are produced by the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

Reported by only some outlets

  • Nine specific races shifted from 'toss-up' to 'leans Democratic', including seats held by Reps. Zach Nunn, Scott Perry, and Derrick Van Orden.
  • The forecaster projects Democrats could get close to 235 seats, mirroring their 2018 performance.
  • Six contests moved from 'leans Democratic' to 'likely Democratic'.
  • Six races shifted from 'safe Republican' to 'likely Republican'.
  • Six races moved from 'likely Republican' to 'leans Republican'.

About these outlets

CadNews does not determine absolute truth or endorse political viewpoints. It compares publicly available reporting, identifies shared facts, highlights framing differences, and flags uncertainty.