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Crypto · October 20, 2026

JPMorgan issues first long-term bitcoin return forecast, projecting 10% annually

3 sources →

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) report for the first time, forecasting a 10% annual return over the next decade. While this projection suggests Bitcoin could outperform traditional assets like U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold, the bank cautioned that high volatility (estimated at 55%) and inconsistent correlations with other assets limit its suitability for broad portfolio inclusion.

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Hype check

How the hype check works

Confirmed · 2

Backed by filings, on-chain data, official statements or several independent publishers.

  • JPMorgan projected a 10% annual return for Bitcoin over 10 years. (J.P. Morgan Asset Management)
  • Bitcoin volatility is projected at 55% annually. (J.P. Morgan Asset Management)

Claimed · 0

Said by a company, project or person; not yet independently confirmed.

  • None identified.

Speculation · 0

Price talk, forecasts or unnamed sources, quoted as someone else's view.

  • None identified.

Reported by multiple outlets

  • J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% annual return for Bitcoin over the next decade.
  • This is the first time Bitcoin has been included in JPMorgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report.
  • The report estimates Bitcoin's annual volatility at 55%.
  • JPMorgan maintains that high volatility and unstable correlations currently limit Bitcoin's role in traditional investment portfolios.

Reported by only some outlets

  • JPMorgan's forecast for Bitcoin tops its projections for stocks, bonds, and gold.

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