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Politics · November 2, 2026

James Talarico's chances of beating Ken Paxton—what final Texas polls show

Part of: Texas Senate: Paxton vs. Talarico →
2 sources →

Recent polling indicates James Talarico holds a lead over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. An AtlasIntel poll conducted from October 28 to November 1 shows Talarico with 51.3 percent of the vote compared to Paxton’s 45.4 percent. Additionally, a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters conducted between October 23 and November 1 reports Talarico at 50 percent and Paxton at 43 percent. Both results place Talarico's lead outside the reported margins of error as the campaign enters its final stage.

Read the original coverage

Reported across the spectrum

  • A New York Times/Siena College poll shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 50 percent to 43 percent.
  • The New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed likely voters in Texas from October 23 to November 1.
  • James Talarico and Ken Paxton are the candidates in the Texas Senate race.

Reported by only some outlets

  • An AtlasIntel poll shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 51.3 percent to 45.4 percent.
  • The AtlasIntel poll surveyed 1,678 respondents from October 28 to November 1.
  • The New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed 5,708 likely voters.
  • The AtlasIntel poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
  • The New York Times/Siena College poll has a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

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