Politics · November 2, 2026
James Talarico's chances of victory hit record high after best poll yet
Part of: Texas Senate: Paxton vs. Talarico →FreeGet stories like this compared, every morning at 7.
In the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections, Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas. Talarico, a 37-year-old former teacher and state representative, is seeking to become the first Democrat to win a Senate race in the state since 1988. Recent polling from the New York Times/Siena College shows Talarico leading Paxton by seven percentage points among likely voters. President Donald Trump has campaigned in the state for Paxton, while Talarico's campaign has drawn national attention for its potential to break a decades-long Democratic losing streak in Texas statewide elections.
Read the original coverage
- NewsweekMBFC: Right-Center
James Talarico's chances of victory hit record high after best poll yet
Read at Newsweek ↗ - The GuardianMBFC: Left-Center
Five dimensional chess: inside James Talarico’s extraordinary bid to break Texas Democrats’ losing streak
Read at The Guardian ↗ - CBS NewsMBFC: Right-Center
Texas voters weigh in on high-stakes Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton
Read at CBS News ↗
Reported across the spectrum
- James Talarico is the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in Texas.
- The Republican candidate is Ken Paxton.
- A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988.
- James Talarico is 37 years old and a former school teacher.
Reported by only some outlets
- A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 50% to 43% among likely voters.
- The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Talarico ahead, though by a narrower margin than the NYT/Siena poll.
- An April University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey found Talarico eight points ahead among registered voters.
- Donald Trump referred to Talarico as 'James Talafreako' during a rally.
- Former Democratic state senator Wendy Davis has referred to Talarico as 'Baby Obama'.
Left-leaning outlets tend to emphasize…
characterize Talarico's campaign as an 'extraordinary' and 'historic' effort to end a long-standing losing streak, emphasizing his personal narrative and comparing his political talent to high-profile figures like Barack Obama.
Right-leaning outlets tend to emphasize…
emphasize Talarico's 'record high' polling numbers while noting that prediction markets and polling averages show a closer race than the most recent individual survey.
Where coverage diverges
Coverage diverges along left/right lines — see Framing tab for specifics.
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